What Does This Analysis Show? 

A Widening Supply Gap 

Annual demand will soon require more than 100,000 new senior housing units per year. The industry continues to deliver roughly 10,000. Every year of underbuilding adds to a cumulative deficit that will leave the nation over half a million units short by 2030. 

The Demographic Wave Is Here 

The first Baby Boomers turned 80 in 2026. The 80+ population is adding more than 1 million people per year by the early 2030s. 

A Trillion-Dollar Investment Need 

Maintaining today's level of senior housing availability will require more than one trillion dollars in new investment through 2050. That's the minimum to hold the line, and one of the largest unmet capital deployment opportunities in commercial real estate. 

Fundamentals Backing the Thesis 

Senior housing delivered the highest annualized total returns of any NCREIF property type in 2025, and occupancy has posted four straight years of 200+ basis-point gains. Capital markets are taking notice. 

The Gap Is Compounding 

  • Construction starts remain near historic lows: New development continues to deliver only a fraction of what the growing 80+ population will require.
  • Underbuilding compounds: Each year at the current pace widens the cumulative shortfall projected in the first edition, and the steepest demographic growth is now two years closer. 
  • The demand is locked in: The 80+ population of the next two decades is a known quantity, not a modeled assumption. The question isn't whether demand arrives, it's whether the industry builds enough to meet it. 

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